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World Cup: France 🇫🇷 vs Morocco 🇲🇦 will there be a penalty kick awarded? Our Prediction
Mambo! The World Cup quarter-finals bring us a heavyweight clash that has everyone talking. France and Morocco lock horns in the quarter-finals at Boston Stadium on 9 July in a repeat of their Qatar 2022 last-four clash. This time, the stakes are just as high, and Kenyan traders on Kadiplay are asking one crucial question: will the referee award a penalty kick during this match?
France's Recent Penalty History at the Tournament
Les Bleus have already shown they can win penalties when it matters most. France followed with a hard-fought win of their own over Paraguay in Philadelphia, breaking through in the 70th minute when Kylian Mbappe converted from the penalty spot after a VAR review overturned a missed foul on Desire Doue. That penalty was the difference between advancing and facing extra time against a stubborn Paraguay side.
Kylian Mbappe is France's go-to penalty option and one of the most reliable converters at international level. Mbappé's penalty was his seventh goal of the 2026 World Cup, drawing him level with Argentina's Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot. With a designated penalty taker of this quality on the pitch, France knows how to capitalize when the referee points to the spot.
How Often Are Penalties Awarded at This World Cup?
Cheki this: the 2026 World Cup has seen a dramatic shift in how referees are calling penalties. With 18 penalties awarded across 92 matches, the World Cup 2026 averaged 0.196 penalties per game so far. That's roughly one penalty every five matches, a significant decrease from previous tournaments.
The 2022 World Cup in Qatar saw 23 penalty kicks awarded during 64 matches, while the 2018 edition in Russia still holds the record with 29 penalty kicks awarded. This year's tournament has been far more conservative when it comes to awarding spot kicks from the penalty area.
What's causing this decline? These numbers have raised questions about the level of refereeing caution in the tournament, especially with controversial cases in recent days. Referees appear to be setting a higher bar for what constitutes a penalty at this World Cup.
The Stakes and Playing Styles
This is a quarter-final, which means both teams will be pushing hard in the attacking third. France have been the most dangerous team on attack so far in the competition, boasting a total of 14 goals in their five matches. When you're creating that many chances and spending time in the opposition box, the probability of winning a penalty naturally increases.
Morocco, on the other hand, have been resolute defensively throughout their campaign. Morocco has been given one or fewer yellow cards in four of their five games at this World Cup. Their disciplined approach suggests they're careful not to give away cheap fouls, especially in dangerous areas.
But quarter-finals change everything. The pressure is immense, tackles become more desperate, and VAR is watching every contact in the box. Both teams know that one moment of poor judgment could cost them a place in the semi-finals.
What History Tells Us
Les Bleus won their previous encounter against Morocco in their semi-final clash at Qatar 2022, with the French claiming a commanding 2-0 win to advance to the final. In that match, no penalties were awarded during regular play. However, tournament football four years later is a different beast entirely.
With 18 penalties awarded in active play at World Cup 2026 so far, the success rate currently sits at 77.8 percent. This shows that when penalties are given, they're usually legitimate calls that hold up under VAR scrutiny.
Our Prediction: Will There Be a Penalty?
Wazi, let's break down the factors. On one hand, penalties have been rare at this World Cup, with referees clearly instructed to avoid soft calls. On the other hand, this is a quarter-final between two elite sides who will spend significant time in each other's penalty areas.
France's attacking prowess means they'll create situations where Morocco defenders will be tested. Morocco's disciplined defending has kept them out of trouble so far, but France is a different level of opponent compared to what they've faced.
Given the high stakes, the attacking quality on display, and the fact that France has already won one penalty in the knockout rounds, we're leaning toward Yes for this market. Quarter-finals are high-pressure environments where defenders make split-second decisions, and VAR ensures nothing is missed. While penalties haven't been common at this tournament, the intensity of this specific match creates the conditions for one to be awarded.
That said, with only 0.196 penalties per match on average, this is far from a certainty. Morocco's discipline and the referees' conservative approach at this World Cup make No a viable position as well. This is one of those markets where smart traders will weigh the value carefully before making their prediction.
Make Your Prediction on France vs Morocco
Will the referee award a penalty in this World Cup quarter-final? The odds are live and the market is open. Trade your prediction now and win KES on Kadiplay.