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World Cup: Spain 🇪🇸 vs Portugal 🇵🇹 will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction
Mambo! The World Cup knockout stage brings us one of the most anticipated fixtures of the tournament. When Spain 🇪🇸 and Portugal 🇵🇹 meet at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on Monday, July 6, football fans across Kenya and the world will be treated to the latest chapter in the Iberian Derby, a rivalry over a century old.
The big question on this Kadiplay market: will this heavyweight clash go all the way to a penalty shootout?
The Iberian Derby: A History of Tight Matches
The Portugal-Spain football rivalry is one of the oldest at national level, with the teams having met 41 times, resulting in 6 victories for Portugal, 18 draws, and 17 victories for Spain. While they have only met twice in World Cup history, this will be their third meeting on the tournament stage in the last five editions.
The most famous major tournament meeting between the two came at the 2018 World Cup, when they played out one of the games of the tournament early in the group stages, sharing the spoils in a six-goal thriller. That 3-3 draw saw Cristiano Ronaldo complete a hat-trick with a sensational late free-kick.
More recently, the most recent matchup between Portugal and Spain came at the UEFA Nations League Finals in 2025, when Portugal defeated Spain on penalties. That match shows how evenly matched these two sides remain.
Form Coming Into This Match
Spain have been in excellent form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 matches with an 80% win rate, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 1 during this period. Luis de la Fuente's side, led by captain Rodri, beat Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay to top Group H and reach the knockout phase, eliminating Austria 3-0 in the round of 32.
Portugal have been in strong form recently, winning 3 of their last 5 matches with a 60% win rate, scoring 10 goals and conceding 3 during this period. Roberto Martínez's side, led by captain Cristiano Ronaldo, defeated Croatia 2-1 in the round of 32.
The Penalty Shootout Surge at World Cup 2026
Here's where it gets interesting. The 2022 World Cup in Qatar featured just three shootouts across 64 matches, a rate of 4.7%. The 2018 World Cup in Russia had four. The 2014 World Cup in Brazil had two. But this tournament has been different.
The Round of 32 of the 2026 tournament produced five penalty shootouts, which is statistically extraordinary. The expanded 48-team format means that more evenly matched teams are meeting in the knockout rounds, with the Round of 32 often pitting teams with minimal quality gaps.
Save rates at the 2026 World Cup are averaging 28%, up from 22% in 2022. Goalkeepers are better prepared than ever.
Spain and Portugal's Penalty Records
The penalty shootout history doesn't favor Spain. In the World Cup, Spain have lost four out of five penalty shootouts. Portugal's record is more mixed, though they became the first team to win multiple UEFA Nations League titles after defeating Spain on penalties in 2025, converting all five of their penalty attempts while Spain missed one.
At Euro 2012, their quarter-final ended level and went to penalties, where Bruno Alves was the unfortunate man to miss in Donetsk, as Spain would go on to claim a third straight major title. But that was over a decade ago.
Will This Match Go to Penalties? Our Analysis
Wazi, let's break this down. Both teams have solid defensive records. Spain's defence has been exceptional in this tournament, while Portugal have shown they can grind out results. The historical head-to-head shows 18 draws in 41 meetings, that's a 44% draw rate after 90 minutes.
Given the knockout stage stakes, the quality of both sides, and the trend we've seen at this World Cup with evenly matched teams producing tight contests, there's a genuine possibility this goes beyond 90 minutes. If the 90 minutes of standard gameplay fail to yield a winner in the World Cup knockout stages, extra time lasts for a total of 30 minutes, broken into two 15-minute halves.
However, both teams possess attacking quality. Spain have Lamine Yamal and a fluid front line. Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo playing what could be his final World Cup, plus dangerous forwards like Gonçalo Ramos who scored the winner against Croatia. These are teams built to score.
The most likely scenario? A tight match decided in regular time or extra time, with one moment of quality making the difference. While the 2026 tournament has seen a penalty shootout surge, the biggest games often produce a decisive goal before penalties.
Our prediction leans towards NO, this match will not go to penalties. One of these two giants will find a way to win before the dreaded shootout, but it will be close.
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