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World Cup: Norway 🇳🇴 vs England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 will there be a penalty kick awarded? Our Prediction

Mambo! The World Cup quarter-finals are here, and the clash between Norway 🇳🇴 and England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 at Miami Stadium on Saturday, July 11 promises fireworks. But beyond the goals and glory, there is a fascinating prediction market to trade: will there be a penalty kick awarded during this match?

This market is not about whether the penalty goes in or misses. It is purely about whether the referee points to the spot after a foul inside the penalty area. Cheki the factors that make this one of the most intriguing markets on Kadiplay right now.

World Cup 2026 Penalty Statistics Tell a Story

Through 92 matches at World Cup 2026, there have been 18 penalties awarded, averaging 0.196 penalties per game. That is roughly one penalty every five matches, a notable decline from previous tournaments. The 2022 World Cup in Qatar saw 23 penalties awarded during 64 matches, while the 2018 edition in Russia had 29 penalty kicks awarded.

However, knockout stage football changes everything. At World Cup 2026, the success rate for penalties sits at 77.8 percent, with 14 penalties converted from 18 awarded during active play. The knockout stages have brought many high-pressure moments to the penalty spot.

Recent knockout matches have featured dramatic spot kicks. In Brazil's loss to Norway, Bruno Guimarães had a penalty saved by Ørjan Nyland. Kylian Mbappé's 69th-minute penalty was the difference-maker in France's hard-fought 1-0 victory over Paraguay. The data shows penalties are becoming decisive moments in these high-stakes encounters.

Norway's Attacking Style Creates Penalty Box Chaos

Norway have both scored 12 goals and conceded 9 in all five of their games at the FIFA World Cup 2026 so far. This is end-to-end football at its finest. Erling Haaland scored a late winner against Côte d'Ivoire in the Round of 32, before bagging a brace against five-time champions Brazil in the Round of 16.

England captain Harry Kane is currently on six goals while Haaland is just ahead on seven after his brace against Brazil. With both strikers hunting the Golden Boot, expect them to attack aggressively in the penalty area, creating opportunities for fouls and potential spot kicks.

Erling Haaland is Norway's first option from the spot in their first World Cup since 1998. His physical presence and pace make him a constant threat inside the box, the type of player defenders struggle to handle without fouling.

England's Penalty Track Record This Tournament

England have already been involved in penalty drama at this World Cup. Harry Kane has scored five World Cup penalty goals, a record for the tournament. Kane has converted five penalties across 2018, 2022 and 2026, a record still unmatched by any other player.

Kane has scored eleven goals in his last 12 knockout stage matches at major tournaments, both scoring and missing a penalty against France at this stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. His experience from the spot is unmatched among active players.

England overcame the altitude, the Azteca Stadium, and a red card against Mexico to cement their third successive FIFA World Cup quarter-final. That match against Mexico saw England win penalties and showed they are comfortable attacking in dangerous areas even when under pressure.

Tactical Factors That Favour a Penalty Being Awarded

VAR has already led to a noticeable increase in penalties since its introduction, and with more matches and enhanced ball-tracking technology at the 2026 tournament, referees are expected to identify more fouls and handballs. VAR review means that even incidents the on-field referee misses can still result in a penalty being awarded.

Both teams have quality wingers who take on defenders in one-on-one situations. England's predicted lineup includes Saka, Bellingham, and Gordon in attacking positions alongside Kane. These are players who drive into the box and draw fouls.

Jordan Pickford has conceded seven of the ten shots on target Erling Haaland has had against him in the Premier League, with the Norwegian only netting more goals against three other goalkeepers. This familiarity means England's defenders know how dangerous Haaland is and may resort to tactical fouls if he breaks through.

Our Prediction: YES, a Penalty Will Be Awarded

Looking at all the evidence, we lean towards YES for this market. Here is why:

Both teams play aggressive, attacking football with world-class forwards who operate primarily in the penalty area. Norway have scored and conceded in every match, creating chaotic penalty box situations. England have already been awarded penalties this tournament and have players who excel at drawing fouls.

The knockout stage intensity, combined with VAR technology and the attacking talent on display, increases the likelihood of a penalty being awarded. This is a FIFA World Cup Quarter Final at Hard Rock Stadium. The stakes are enormous, and in these high-pressure matches, defenders make mistakes.

Wazi, this is not a guaranteed outcome. The tournament average is 0.196 penalties per game. However, the specific circumstances of this match, the playing styles, the attacking quality, and the VAR oversight all point towards a higher probability of seeing the referee point to the spot.

Whether it is Haaland being brought down by a desperate English defender or Kane winning a soft penalty in the Norwegian box, the conditions are right for penalty drama in Miami.

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