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World Cup: France 🇫🇷 vs Spain 🇪🇸 will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction

Mambo, prediction traders! The World Cup semifinal between France 🇫🇷 and Spain 🇪🇸 on July 14 has all the makings of a classic, and the big question on everyone's mind is simple: will this blockbuster clash be decided from the penalty spot?

This is the match the whole world has been waiting for. France and Spain entered the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the favorites to win the tournament, now the two powerhouses will meet in the semifinals at Dallas Stadium on Tuesday. It feels like a final that's arrived one round too early.

France's Dominant Run vs Spain's Narrow Escapes

Through six matches, France is a perfect 6W-0D-0L. Les Bleus have been absolutely ruthless, crushing opponents with clinical efficiency. Kylian Mbappé has once again been France's leading man at the tournament, scoring a tournament-high eight goals in six matches.

Spain's journey has been very different. Except for its 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia in the group stage and its 3-0 win over Austria in the round of 32, all of Spain's wins at the 2026 FIFA World Cup have been decided by a single goal, and two of its match-winners have come later than the 85th minute. La Roja have been grinding out results, relying on their rock-solid defense and late drama.

The Penalty Shootout Question: History Tells a Story

Here's where things get interesting for traders on this market. Both teams have complicated relationships with penalty shootouts, but Spain's record is particularly troubling.

Spain have been involved in five World Cup penalty shootouts but have won just one (20%). Their four shootout defeats are the most in the history of the competition. Wazi? That's a shocking stat. Their most recent one came in the 2022 World Cup in the round of 16 versus Morocco, and it was arguably their worst of the lot. Spain failed to score a single penalty in that shootout, losing 3-0.

France's recent shootout record isn't much better. In the World Cup, France are carrying the millstone of two shootout defeats in the final and Spain have lost four out of five. Les Bleus lost the 2006 World Cup final to Italy on penalties and, more painfully, the 2022 final to Argentina the same way.

Will This Match Even Go to Extra Time?

The big question is whether these two heavyweight sides will be separated in regular time or extra time. If the score of a match is level at the end of 90 minutes of playing time, 30 minutes of extra time will be played. If the scores are still tied, the match will be decided by a penalty shootout.

Since the start of Russia 2018, Spain have lost just one of 27 major tournament matches, going unbeaten in the last 14 while keeping nine clean sheets. Their defensive strength suggests a tight contest. Meanwhile, France's firepower and perfect record point to a team that finds ways to win before the final whistle.

Spanish fans can claim recent precedent favours their team, who have won seven of their last 10 games against France. The most recent two were particularly notable: 2-1 in the semis of Euro 2024, which they went on to win, and 5-4 at last year's UEFA Nations League finals.

Our Prediction: Will We See Penalties?

Cheki, this is a tough one to call. Spain's knack for one-goal victories and France's relentless winning form suggest a match that could be decided by the finest of margins. Both teams have elite defenses and world-class attackers, making a draw after 90 minutes very possible.

The historical shootout records add another layer. Spain will be desperate to avoid penalties given their terrible track record, while France will remember the heartbreak of Qatar 2022. That psychological weight could push both teams to go all out in regulation and extra time.

Still, with two defensive juggernauts meeting in a knockout semifinal, and given how tight Spain's recent matches have been, the possibility of penalties cannot be ignored. This is exactly the kind of cagey, high-stakes encounter where neither side wants to make a mistake, and that often leads to a stalemate after 120 minutes.

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