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World Cup: England ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ vs DR Congo ๐จ๐ฉ will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction
Mambo predictors! The World Cup knockout stage has arrived, and with it comes one of the most nerve-wracking questions in football: will this match go to penalties? England face the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the round of 32 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 on Wednesday (1 July), and the possibility of a penalty shootout is very much on the table.
The Match Setup: England's Advantage vs DR Congo's Resilience
Thomas Tuchel's England topped Group L on seven points, opening with a 4-2 win over Croatia in which Harry Kane scored twice. They looked solid if not spectacular, but knockout football is a different beast entirely. England are expected to progress comfortably, with the 2/7 price reflecting the gulf in World Cup experience and squad depth between the two sides.
But here's the twist: DR Congo have reached the knockout stage for the first time in their history. The Leopards finished third in Group K after holding Portugal to a 1-1 draw, losing 1-0 to Colombia and beating Uzbekistan 3-1, with Newcastle forward Yoane Wissa scoring three times across the group stage. They've already defied expectations just by being here, and they've shown they can frustrate top sides.
Sรฉbastien Desabre has built his team on a bedrock of defensive stability, securing 29 clean sheets in 57 matches during his tenure. While he has historically favored a back four, Desabre has deployed a rigid back-five defensive block at this tournament to frustrate heavyweight European nations like Portugal. If DR Congo can keep things tight, they force England into uncomfortable territory.
England's Penalty Shootout Record: A Mixed Bag
Cheki this: England and penalties have a complicated history. England have been in 11 penalty shootouts at major international tournaments (World Cup, European Championship and Nations League), losing seven and winning four. That's not exactly confidence-inspiring.
At World Cups specifically, the record is even more interesting. As of the 2022 edition, the Three Lions have been involved in four shootouts at the World Cup. They won their first at a World Cup in 2018 when they defeated Colombia in the last-16 stage. Prior to their spot-kick triumph over the Colombians, England had lost in 2006 against Portugal in the quarter-finals, in 1998 against Argentina in the last 16 and in 1990 against Germany in the semi-final.
Under current manager Thomas Tuchel, England haven't yet faced a shootout at this tournament, but history shows this team can go either way when it comes to penalties.
How Often Do World Cup Knockout Matches Go to Penalties?
Let's talk numbers. There have been 35 penalty shootouts in the World Cup history so far with five of them coming in 2022, most in a single edition, including the final won by Argentina against France. Of the 35 shoot-outs that have taken place in the competition, only two reached the sudden death stage after still being tied at the end of best of five kicks.
Historically, knockout matches that feature a clear favourite against a defensive underdog have a higher chance of going the distance. DR Congo's strategy is built around absorbing pressure and hitting on the counter, which means they're unlikely to push aggressively for a winner if the game is level late on.
Will England vs DR Congo Go to Penalties? Our Prediction
Wazi, let's break this down. England are the heavy favourites, and most analysts expect them to win in regular or extra time. A handful of England players seem to be feeling the heat but there are also enough leaders in the group, including fit-again midfielder Declan Rice, who can give them the extra edge they require and pave the way for a solid, low-scoring victory.
However, Rashford and Saka have tended to perform better in such situations and they could be important to getting at a Congo DR backline that held Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal at arm's length with ease for much of their World Cup opener. As uninspiring as England have been so far at the World Cup, this could be the game in which they lay out a marker for the rest of the tournament. Congo DR's defense is well set, and their great strength, with their Premier League and European football experience, they will know exactly what to expect from England's forwards.
Our prediction? NO, this match will not go to penalties. England have the quality to break down DR Congo within 120 minutes, especially with the attacking options Tuchel has at his disposal. While DR Congo's defensive discipline is impressive, England's superior squad depth and tournament experience should see them through before spot kicks are required.
That said, if you're looking at the odds, don't completely write off the possibility. DR Congo have already exceeded expectations, and if they can keep things tight through 90 minutes, the pressure mounts on England. England have been slow into their stride in recent games and the pattern may continue with an evenly matched first half in Atlanta. A cagey first half could set the tone for a tense encounter.
Key Factors That Could Force Penalties
A few scenarios could push this match to a shootout:
- England's slow starts: If they take too long to break down DR Congo's defensive wall, nerves could set in.
- Yoane Wissa's threat: DR Congo are likely to favour a counter-attacking strategy and their best outlet could be Newcastle striker Yoane Wissa, who has scored three of their four World Cup goals. Wissa had a tough season with Newcastle, scoring just once in 19 Premier League games, but he headed a superb equaliser against Portugal and has looked a different player ever since.
- Tournament pressure: Knockout football is unforgiving. One mistake, one brilliant save, one moment of individual brilliance can change everything.
For Kenyan fans watching on Kadiplay, this market offers real value. If you believe England's quality will shine through in regular or extra time, NO is the move. But if you sense an upset brewing or think DR Congo's resilience could frustrate the Three Lions all the way to penalties, YES becomes an intriguing prediction.
Will England and DR Congo Need Penalties? Make Your Prediction Now
This knockout clash has all the drama you need. Back your instincts and trade the penalty shootout market before kickoff on July 1st.