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World Cup: England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 vs Argentina 🇦🇷 will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction

Mambo, football fans. The 2026 World Cup has delivered knockout drama after knockout drama, and now we're facing one of the biggest semi-finals imaginable. England face Argentina in the semi-finals on Wednesday at 8pm (BST), and Kenyan traders are asking one crucial question: will this game go to penalties?

This is the question on everyone's mind as two teams with completely different penalty shootout histories prepare to battle for a place in the World Cup final. Let's break down what the numbers tell us about whether this match will be decided from the spot.

England's Road to the Semi-Finals

England reached the semi-finals after a 2-1 win over Norway after extra-time in their quarter-final in Miami. Thomas Tuchel's Three Lions have been grinding out results throughout the knockout stages, with Jude Bellingham's double, including an extra-time winner proving crucial against the Norwegians.

The tournament hasn't been smooth sailing for England. Jude Bellingham's double in the space of two minutes and Harry Kane's second-half penalty secured an epic 3-2 win over Mexico, despite host nation Mexico scoring through Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez, and England's Jarell Quansah getting sent off. Cheki that resilience.

What does this tell us? England have needed extra time already in this tournament, showing they're not blowing teams away. This pattern suggests tight matches could be their norm.

Argentina's Knockout Journey

The Three Lions will face reigning world champions Argentina in the semi-final, who beat Switzerland 3-1 after extra time. Like England, Argentina also needed the full 120 minutes to progress from their quarter-final.

The defending champions have shown they can grind through difficult matches. Argentina were 2-0 down to Egypt with 15 minutes left, after Messi missed a penalty, but goals from Cristian Romero, Messi, then Enzo Fernández in stoppage time sensationally turned the game around. That's championship mentality right there.

The Penalty Shootout Records

Now here's where it gets interesting for this prediction market. The two teams have wildly different records when matches go to spot kicks.

Argentina has taken part in seven penalty shootouts, winning six of them. That's an incredible 85 per cent win rate at the World Cup. At the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Argentina won two decisive shootouts, against the Netherlands in the quarterfinal and France in the final, to secure the championship title.

England's record? Not quite as impressive. They have been in four World Cup penalty shoot-outs and have won just one, at the 2018 World Cup against Colombia. They had previously lost in shoot-outs at the 1990, 1998, and 2006 World Cups. Their overall tournament record stands at 11 penalty shoot-outs at international tournaments, four at the World Cup, six at the European Championship and one in the Nations League, with a current record of won four, lost seven.

Wazi? Argentina are basically penalty shootout kings, while England have historically struggled under that pressure.

Head-to-Head History

These two nations have serious history. England is regarded in Argentina as one of the major rivals of the national football team, matched only by Brazil, Germany and Uruguay. The rivalry goes deep.

There have been five meetings between England and Argentina in the history of World Cup football, with England beating Argentina 3-1 in the group stage of the 1962 World Cup, before playing them again on home soil four years later. But the most famous encounter? The infamous 'Hand of God' goal was followed by a moment of sheer genius from Diego Maradona as England headed home despite a late Gary Lineker goal in 1986.

The drama of Mexico '86 was more than matched at France '98 as Argentina prevailed on penalties at the Last 16 stage. That was one of England's painful shootout defeats.

Despite some historic battles over the years, the two teams have not faced each other for 21 years. The rivalry is about to be renewed in the biggest possible setting.

Recent Knockout Trends at This World Cup

This 2026 tournament has been absolutely wild for penalty shootouts. The round of 32 produced five shootouts across sixteen matches, the highest rate at any stage of any World Cup. That's unprecedented drama.

Both England and Argentina have already gone to extra time in their quarter-finals, and neither team has been winning knockout games comfortably. The pattern is clear: tight, tense matches that go the distance.

Our Prediction: Will England vs Argentina Go to Penalties?

Looking at all the evidence, this market leans towards YES, penalties will be needed.

Here's why: Both teams needed extra time in their quarter-finals. Both have been involved in tight knockout matches throughout this tournament. England has only won two of its six matches by more than one goal, and it hasn't won by more than a single goal since the knockout stage started. These are two evenly matched teams who will be cautious in a semi-final.

The historical context matters too. When these rivals meet at the World Cup, drama follows. Add in the fact that the round of 32 produced five shootouts across sixteen matches, the highest rate at any stage of any World Cup, and we're seeing a tournament where knockout matches are regularly going the distance.

For Kenyan traders, the YES outcome looks strong. Semi-finals are typically cagey affairs where neither team wants to make a mistake. With Argentina's incredible shootout record and England's improving mentality under pressure, both teams might actually fancy their chances from the spot.

Twende, the value is on YES for this market. History, recent form, and knockout football psychology all point towards 120 minutes not being enough to separate these two giants.

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