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World Cup: Colombia 🇨🇴 vs Ghana 🇬🇭 will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction

Mambo, Kadiplay traders. The World Cup knockout stage brings us a fascinating clash as Colombia takes on Ghana in the Round of 32 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. This fixture kicks off July 4th at 1:30 AM UTC, and the big question traders are asking is whether we'll see the drama of a penalty shootout to decide this one.

Colombia's Solid Group Stage Run

Colombia have been in excellent form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 matches with an 80% win rate, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 2. Los Cafeteros topped Group K with authority, showing the kind of composure that could keep them out of penalty trouble.

In the World Cup group stage, Colombia beat Uzbekistan 3-1, defeated DR Congo 1-0, and drew 0-0 with Portugal. That goalless draw with Portugal tells you something important about this team. Their defence has been exceptional, conceding an average of 0.4 goals per game.

The thing is, Colombia has the color, rhythm, and public money, but they've also shown they can close out tight matches in regulation. Under manager Néstor Lorenzo, they know how to manage knockout football.

Ghana's Defensive Steel

Cheki Ghana's tournament, though. The Black Stars finished third in Group L but they've shown they can frustrate better teams. Ghana finished third in Group L after a 2-1 loss to Croatia, but they beat Panama 1-0 and then dragged England into a 0-0 match.

That England result is key to understanding this Ghana side. Thomas Tuchel later described their defensive wall as brutal to break. Ghana has the goalkeeper, the low block, and the nerve to make better teams hate themselves.

Benjamin Asare gives Ghana's price some soul, with Reuters profiling his rise from Ghana's domestic league to World Cup clean sheets, including the England shutout. In knockout football, a goalkeeper in form can change everything.

Will This One Need Penalties?

Here's where it gets interesting for traders. This is exactly the kind of knockout match that can look obvious on a sportsbook screen and feel claustrophobic by the halftime odds board. Colombia are favorites, but Ghana specialize in making life difficult.

Colombia have scored over 1.5 goals in 33% of their matches this season while losing their clean sheet in 33% of games, with 4 goals and 19 shots on target this FIFA World Cup season. Ghana have scored 2 goals with 4 shots on target this season, managing over 1.5 goals in 33% of matches but conceding in 33% of games.

Those numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. One analysis projects Colombia 1, Ghana 0, but remember, Colombia looked dangerous without scoring, dominant without reward, with their coach warning that missed chances will bite harder in knockouts.

The Penalty Shootout Factor

Wazi, let's talk about what happens if this does go to extra time. If the score remains level after extra time, the match is decided by a penalty shootout, used when teams cannot be separated after 90 minutes and extra time.

There have been 35 penalty shootouts in World Cups since they were introduced. The 2022 World Cup saw five matches go to a penalty shootout, the most in the history of the tournament. This expanded 2026 format with 32 knockout matches could produce even more.

Neither Colombia nor Ghana have faced each other before at World Cup level, so there's no head-to-head history to draw from in high-pressure situations. What we do know is that a recent analysis by Opta of 292 penalties taken in World Cup shootouts since 1982 shows 14% of players aimed low and to their left side of the goal, with just over 85% of those penalties converted.

Our Prediction: NO

Based on how both teams have played, we're leaning towards NO on this market. Colombia have the quality to find a goal during regulation or extra time. They've scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and possess attacking threats like Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez who can unlock tight defenses.

While Ghana are defensively disciplined, they've conceded in two of their three group matches. Colombia's experience under Lorenzo, combined with their ability to control matches, suggests they'll avoid the lottery of penalties. Expect a 1-0 or 2-1 result decided in the 120 minutes before spot kicks are needed.

That said, if Ghana's defensive shape holds and Asare continues his heroics between the posts, this could absolutely go the distance. The Round of 32 often produces cagey affairs where teams are afraid to lose more than they're eager to win.

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