Sports

World Cup: Brazil 🇧🇷 vs Norway 🇳🇴 will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction

Mambo, football fans! Brazil take on Norway in a heavyweight Round of 16 contest in the 2026 World Cup at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, and traders on Kadiplay are asking one crucial question: will this match be decided from the penalty spot?

Carlo Ancelotti's side progressed to the last 16 after a last-gasp 2-1 win over Japan in the round of 32, with Gabriel Martinelli scoring a 95th-minute winner. Norway also needed a late goal from Erling Haaland to squeeze past the Ivory Coast in their round-of-32 tie, winning 2-1. Both teams know how to survive under pressure, setting the stage for a tense knockout showdown.

The Historical Record: Norway's Surprising Edge

Here's a stat that might surprise you. Norway have never lost to Brazil in their four prior meetings, and the only time they met in a World Cup, the group stage of the 1998 edition, saw the Norwegians run out 2-1 winners. That historical edge could give Norway the mental confidence to stay in this match deep into the later stages.

Brazil will be aware of their winless record against this weekend's opponents, whom they have not defeated in four previous encounters. For a five-time world champion, that's a psychological factor that could create tension if the match remains tight heading into the final minutes.

Brazil's Form and Tactical Concerns

Brazil have been in excellent form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 3 during this period. Under Ancelotti's guidance, the Seleção have shown resilience, but they haven't exactly been dominant.

Brazil have been hit hard with injuries to Raphinha and Lucas Paqueta, but they don't inspire fear in their opponents any more. The midfield has looked vulnerable, and against a team built around Haaland's threat, defensive solidity will be tested. Raphinha is already ruled out, while Brazil are sweating over the fitness of Lucas Paqueta and Casemiro, with Paqueta likely to be replaced by Danilo Santos in midfield.

If Brazil struggle to break down Norway's organized defense, this match could easily drift into extra time and potentially penalties.

Norway's Direct Approach and Haaland Factor

Haaland was responsible for 1.17 xG of Norway's 1.90 total against the Ivory Coast, and has scored 50% of their ten goals so far at this World Cup. The Manchester City striker is Norway's primary weapon, and he has netted five goals on his World Cup debut, with his tally accounting for 50% of the Vikings' 10 goals.

Norway have embraced outscoring their opponents in the 2026 finals, with the European outfit scoring and conceding in every game since their return to the tournament. This attacking mentality suggests goals could come, but it also means Norway are vulnerable at the back.

Norway's four matches have produced 18 goals, showcasing the entertainment value but also defensive fragility. Against Brazil's quality, can they keep it tight enough to force penalties?

Penalty Shootout History: Who Handles the Pressure?

If this match does go to penalties, history offers some fascinating insights. There have been 35 penalty shootouts in World Cups since they were introduced ahead of the 1978 tournament, with the first coming on 8 June 1982.

Brazil have mixed penalty shootout form. The 1994 World Cup final between Brazil and Italy was the first World Cup final ever decided by a penalty shootout, with Brazil winning 3-2 on penalties after a 0-0 draw. More recently, Croatia defeated Brazil in a penalty shootout in the quarter-final of the 2022 World Cup, a painful memory still fresh for Brazilian fans.

Norway, on the other hand, have never been involved in a World Cup penalty shootout. They're entering uncharted territory if this match reaches that stage. Will nerves favor the experienced Brazilians, or will Norway's fearless approach carry them through?

Our Prediction: Will It Go to Penalties?

Several factors point toward a close, tense encounter. Brazil's injury concerns in midfield could limit their creativity. Norway's historical record against Brazil gives them belief. Both teams scored late drama in the Round of 32, showing they can handle pressure situations.

Norway's direct play may prove too much for a Brazil side who have shown vulnerability when dealing with teams possessing a sufficient counter-attacking threat, with the Vikings' all-or-nothing approach suggesting both teams should find the back of the net.

If both teams score and the match remains level through 90 minutes, extra time becomes likely. Extra time lasts for a total of 30 minutes, broken into two 15-minute halves. Given the attacking quality on both sides balanced against defensive concerns, we could see a cagey extra period where neither side wants to over-commit.

Our prediction? This match has all the ingredients for a penalty shootout. Brazil's creative struggles without Paqueta, Norway's historical confidence against the Seleção, and Haaland's ability to keep his team in any match all point toward a tight contest that could go the distance.

Cheki this market on Kadiplay and make your prediction. Will we see spot-kick drama at MetLife Stadium, or will one of these teams find a winner before the final whistle?

Trade World Cup: Brazil 🇧🇷 vs Norway 🇳🇴 will the game go to penalties? on Kadiplay

All insights