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World Cup: Argentina 🇦🇷 vs Switzerland 🇨🇠will there be a penalty kick awarded? Our Prediction
Mambo, Kadiplay crew! The World Cup quarterfinal stage brings us a fascinating encounter between defending champions Argentina 🇦🇷 and surprise package Switzerland 🇨ðŸ‡. This match is scheduled for Saturday, July 11 at 8:00 PM local time at Kansas City Stadium, and one of the key prediction markets asks whether we'll see a penalty kick awarded during this knockout showdown.
Argentina's Penalty Drama at World Cup 2026
Argentina had a great chance to equalize against Egypt, but Lionel Messi missed a penalty kick in the 21st minute of their Round of 16 match. This wasn't an isolated incident. Players have converted just 32 of 49 penalties in this World Cup, with a 65.3% conversion rate, the lowest since 1966.
Even more striking, no other player has missed multiple penalty kicks in a single World Cup like Messi has in 2026. Throughout his career Lionel Messi has taken 150 penalties (as of July 7, 2026), scoring 116 and missing 33, leaving him with a success rate of 77.3%. The fact that Argentina were awarded a penalty against Egypt shows their attacking play draws fouls inside the box.
Switzerland's Recent Tournament Run
Switzerland defeated Colombia on penalty kicks after a goalless draw, and will face Argentina in Kansas City on Saturday. Their route to the quarterfinals has been notable. Only the teams of Austria, Germany, England, South Africa, and Switzerland have benefited from penalty kicks so far, with Switzerland being the only team to have received two penalty kicks during the tournament.
This stat is crucial. Switzerland have already won two penalties in the group and knockout stages, more than any other team still in the competition. Their ability to earn spot kicks suggests they play in areas where defenders are forced into desperate challenges.
The Penalty Trend at World Cup 2026
Cheki this interesting development. The 2026 World Cup recorded a significant and unexpected decline in the number of penalty kicks awarded after forty matches in the tournament, with only 6 penalty kicks awarded since the start of the competition, at a rate of one penalty every 6.7 matches.
However, with 18 penalties awarded in active play at World Cup 2026 so far, the success rate currently sits at 77.8% (14-for-18). The knockout rounds have seen more penalties as the intensity increases and VAR scrutiny becomes even tighter.
Historical Context Between These Teams
The two nations last crossed paths on the World Cup stage at Brazil 2014, where a resilient Argentine side broke Swiss hearts with a dramatic 1-0 victory deep in extra time. That match went to 120 minutes without a penalty being awarded, showing these teams can produce tight, tactical battles.
In the history of World Cups, Argentina National Team faced Switzerland in 2 opportunities, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 lossess. Both previous meetings were cagey affairs decided by narrow margins.
Our Prediction: Will a Penalty Be Awarded?
This is a tough one to call, but the evidence leans toward YES. Here's our thinking.
First, Argentina enters this matchup as the FIFA-ranked number one team, burdened with the responsibility of defending their World Cup title from Qatar 2022. However, their struggles in recent rounds, extra time against Cape Verde and a comeback against Egypt, highlight that they are not invincible. This defensive vulnerability could lead to fouls in dangerous areas.
Second, Switzerland have already won two penalties in this tournament, the most of any remaining team. Their style of play clearly puts pressure on defenders. Messi grabbed a goal and assist after missing a penalty in a poor showing for the defending champions, who will have their work cut out against a resilient Switzerland side.
Third, knockout football at this stage brings desperation. Players make challenges they wouldn't normally attempt in group matches. The stakes are massive, with a semifinal place on the line.
Finally, with VAR in full effect and referees under enormous pressure to get decisions correct, any genuine foul in the box is likely to be spotted and awarded. VAR has already led to a noticeable increase in penalties since its introduction. With more matches and enhanced ball-tracking technology at the 2026 tournament, referees are expected to identify more fouls and handballs.
Wazi, we're leaning toward YES for this market. Both teams have attacking threats who can win penalties, Argentina have shown defensive frailties, and Switzerland have already proven adept at earning spot kicks. The intensity of a quarterfinal, combined with VAR technology, makes a penalty award more likely than not.
Trade the Argentina vs Switzerland Penalty Market Now
Will the referee point to the spot in this massive quarterfinal? Make your prediction on whether a penalty will be awarded and trade this market on Kadiplay before kickoff.