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World Cup: Argentina 🇦🇷 vs Egypt 🇪🇬 will the game go to penalties? Our Prediction

Mambo, football fans. The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 brings us a massive showdown between defending champions Argentina and tournament underdogs Egypt at Atlanta Stadium on July 7. The question on every trader's mind: will this clash go the distance and be settled by the cruellest method in football, a penalty shootout?

Argentina's Journey to the Last 16

Argentina topped their group with three victories and will enter this match as heavy favorites against Egypt. But their path hasn't been as smooth as the results suggest. Cape Verde nearly pulled off the biggest upset in World Cup knockout stage history before Argentina survived with a 3-2 extra time victory in the Round of 32.

Lionel Messi has been unstoppable, scoring 20 career World Cup goals including seven at this tournament, with an incredible streak of scoring in eight consecutive World Cup matches. La Albiceleste have won all five of their last five matches with a 100% win rate, scoring 13 goals and conceding just one, with their defence allowing only 0.2 goals per game. That's championship form, wazi.

Egypt's Historic World Cup Run

Egypt are living their best World Cup dream right now. They advanced to the round of 16 after their first-ever knockout stage victory, having only participated in the World Cup round of 16 once before in 1934 when only 16 teams competed and there was no group stage.

Egypt reached this stage after a dramatic 4-2 penalty shootout victory over Australia following a 1-1 draw after extra time, with all four of their penalty takers converting, including Mohamed Salah with a panenka. That takes serious nerve. They are only the second African nation to win a World Cup penalty shootout, after Morocco's triumphs in 2022 and 2026.

However, Egypt have struggled recently, winning just one of their last five matches with a 20% win rate, drawing 1-1 with Belgium, Iran, and Australia. Their group stage performances were mixed, but they've shown they can handle pressure moments.

The Penalty Shootout Factor

Cheki this stat carefully. Argentina have been involved in the most penalty shootouts in World Cup history with seven, winning six of them, including two at the 2022 finals against Netherlands and France, with their only defeat coming in the 2006 quarter-final against Germany.

The secret weapon? Emiliano Martinez has never lost a penalty shootout with Argentina in goal, winning four total: two at the 2022 FIFA World Cup against Netherlands and France, and two at Copa America against Colombia in 2021 and Ecuador in 2024. In shootouts with Argentina, Martinez has faced 24 penalties, saving nine with two hitting the post and one missed, giving opponents a shockingly low 50% conversion rate.

That's the kind of record that makes Egypt's recent shootout success look like beginner's luck by comparison. Egypt's only World Cup shootout experience came against Australia days ago, so they're untested at this level when the pressure truly peaks.

Will This Match Go to Penalties?

Here's where it gets interesting for traders. The 2022 World Cup saw five matches go to penalty shootouts, the most in tournament history, including the final between France and Argentina. The 2026 tournament is already producing drama, with multiple shootouts in the knockout rounds.

But let's be real. Argentina are the defending champions with the number one ranking in FIFA's World Rankings as of June 2026. Egypt are ranked 29th globally and have never been this deep in a World Cup. The talent gap is massive.

Argentina have remained unbeaten in their last 14 meetings against nations playing in their first World Cup, and while Egypt technically appeared in 1934, this is their first real knockout stage experience in the modern era. Argentina's attacking firepower, led by Messi's incredible form, should be too much for Egypt to contain over 90 minutes.

Egypt will likely set up defensively and try to frustrate Argentina, much like Cape Verde nearly did. They've shown they can grind out results and take matches to extra time. But Argentina have the quality to break down even the most organized defences, especially with Messi playing at this level.

Our Prediction

While Egypt's fairytale continues and they've proven capable of taking matches the distance, we're predicting NO, this match will not go to penalties. Argentina's superior quality, attacking depth, and experience should see them win within the 120 minutes. Expect a 2-0 or 2-1 victory for La Albiceleste in regular or extra time.

That said, if this match does somehow reach penalties, you already know who the heavy favorite would be. Dibu Martinez doesn't lose shootouts, period.

Twende, let's see if Egypt can continue defying the odds or if Argentina's championship pedigree proves too strong.

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