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WAFCON: Cape Verde 🇨🇻 vs Cameroon 🇨🇲 will there be a penalty kick awarded? Our Prediction
Penalty Trends at WAFCON 2026
Marie Ngah Manga converted a first-half penalty in the 19th minute after a VAR review awarded Cameroon a spot-kick when they faced Ghana in their previous match. This shows that penalties have already featured prominently in the tournament, with VAR reviews making handball incidents reviewable infractions that can lead to spot-kicks.
Through the group stage matches so far, VAR technology has been actively used to identify handball incidents in the box. The trend suggests referees are willing to point to the spot when clear contact is detected, especially with video review backing the decision.
Cameroon's Penalty History
Cameroon earned a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Mali in a match that was far more physical than entertaining, as part of Group D of the 2026 WAFCON. Thanks to a brace from Marie Gisèle Ngah Manga, the Indomitable Lionesses capitalized on their best moments including from the penalty spot.
Cameroon has benefited from two penalty awards in their first two matches (against Mali and Ghana), suggesting the referee team has been willing to award spot-kicks for infractions in their games. Their aggressive attacking play sometimes draws defensive fouls in dangerous areas.
Cape Verde's Tournament Experience
Cape Verde will make their first appearance in the final tournament of WAFCON 2026. Cape Verde remain rooted to the bottom without a point, although their spirited display and two-goal performance offered further encouragement in their maiden appearance at the continental finals.
As a debutant team facing stronger opposition, Cape Verde may find themselves defending more frequently, which could increase the likelihood of defensive infractions. However, their inexperience at this level might also mean they commit fewer tactical fouls.
The Final Group Stage Match
With one round of matches remaining, the race for the two quarter-final places in Group D remains wide open. This match carries significant meaning for Cape Verde's qualification hopes, which could influence how desperately both teams play and how many fouls are committed.
With Cameroon already qualified and Cape Verde needing points to stay alive in the tournament, the tactical approach of both sides will shape penalty probabilities. Cameroon might control possession, inviting more defensive pressure from Cape Verde, while Cape Verde may need to be more aggressive in their approach.
What to Watch For
Key factors that could lead to a penalty: handball incidents in the box (VAR has been used multiple times in this tournament), aggressive defending from Cape Verde in desperation, and physical challenge breaks down. The tournament referees have shown consistency in awarding penalties for clear infractions, especially with VAR confirmation.
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