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WAFCON: Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 vs South Africa 🇿🇦 will there be a penalty kick awarded? Our Prediction

The Stage is Set: A Critical Matchday 3 Showdown

South Africa will go to their final Group B Women's Africa Cup of Nations (WAFCON) game against Burkina Faso on August 4 with at least some chance of progressing to the quarter-finals, following a dramatic tournament run. The match is scheduled at 22:00 CET at the Larbi Zaouli Stadium in Casablanca, where emotions will be running high and stakes even higher.

Both teams arrive at this Matchday 3 decider in contrasting form. Burkina Faso will attempt to secure qualification for the next round against South Africa, after producing a stunning turnaround. Burkina Faso defeated Tanzania 2-1 in their second Group B fixture, bouncing back from a heavy 4-1 opening loss to Ivory Coast. Meanwhile, South Africa drew 2-2 against Côte d'Ivoire and must win to keep their World Cup qualification hopes alive.

Penalty History in Women's Football and WAFCON

Understanding penalty frequency is crucial for this prediction. In women's football, penalty frequency has risen dramatically: there were 46 penalty tries from 180 games between 1991-2011 (0.26 per match), 22 given in 2015 without VAR (0.42 per game), 26 awarded in 52 games in 2019 with it (0.50), and the 2023 World Cup saw a rate of 1.0 per game in early tournament play.

Across the last two WAFCON editions, Morocco have been awarded six in-game penalties, suggesting penalties are a regular occurrence at this tournament. The increased use of VAR at major tournaments has contributed to more spot-kick awards.

What the Teams Bring to the Match

South Africa, the 2022 WAFCON champions, are in an unfamiliar position fighting for qualification. In recent head-to-head matches, South Africa Women won 3 draws with 2 losses in their last 5 meetings, showing they're capable but vulnerable under pressure. A team needing three points will likely push forward aggressively.

Burkina Faso, buoyed by their comeback win against Tanzania, are hungry. They've shown they can be competitive at this level, and desperation from both sides in a final group match creates the kind of intensity where fouls accumulate. When teams are chasing wins, defensive risks increase, and referees tend to be more decisive awarding penalties in the box.

Tactical Considerations

This is a knockout-style group stage match masquerading as a regular fixture. Both teams know one will likely progress; the other might go home. That mentality breeds urgency, attacking runs into dangerous areas, and nervous defending. Defenders making split-second decisions under pressure often commit fouls.

The venue, Larbi Zaouli Stadium in Casablanca, is one of the main tournament grounds where refereeing tends to be consistent with continental standards. Modern football administration at WAFCON means VAR review is likely available, encouraging referees to check penalty decisions rather than wave them away.

The Conversion Conundrum Doesn't Matter

Remember: this market only requires a penalty to be awarded, not converted. In elite women's football, the overall conversion rate is 80.4%, with 15.4% of attempts saved and 4.2% missed, meaning even missed or saved penalties count toward a YES resolution. The bar is simply whether the referee points to the spot.

Making Your Prediction

Consider: two evenly matched teams fighting for continental survival, modern refereeing standards at a prestigious tournament, and the natural chaos of Matchday 3 pressure football. The frequency of penalties in women's football has increased significantly, and this high-stakes contest has all the hallmarks of a match where at least one spot-kick gets awarded.

Whether YES or NO, this market offers interesting value. Wazi, Cheki the odds on Kadiplay sawa.

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