Sports

Glasgow Commonwealth Games: Will Kenya win at least 3 Gold medals in Athletics? Our Prediction

Kenya's Commonwealth Games Athletics Legacy

Mambo! Kenya has one of the most storied traditions in Commonwealth Games athletics. Kenya has won 258 Commonwealth Games medals, mostly in athletics and boxing, with thirty-four coming from a single event, the 3000 metre steeplechase, an event in which no athlete but a Kenyan won a medal between 1994 and 2022. This is no casual streak, wazi. Kenya is the second most successful African country at the Commonwealth Games, behind only South Africa, having won 258 medals: 91 gold, 80 silver and 87 bronze.

Distance running is where Kenya shines brightest at these Games, especially in events like the steeplechase, 5000m, and 10,000m where Kenyan athletes have dominated for decades.

The 2022 Birmingham Performance: A Mixed Bag

Kenya's showing at the 2022 Commonwealth Games in Birmingham tells us something important. Kenya has collected 21 medals; six gold, five silver and 10 bronze at the 2022 Birmingham Commonwealth Games. Athletics proved Kenya's main harvest field at the Games to produce all the medals save for one- bronze- from Hellen Wawira in para powerlifting.

Six golds in Birmingham. That shows Kenya can reach the three-medal target, but they fell short of their historical highs. Kenya missed out on medals in events it has consistently done well in the past. Kenya failed to win gold in men's and women's marathons. The country also lost 10,000m, 1,500m and men's 5,000m titles.

Star Power in Glasgow 2026

Kenya's team for Glasgow is loaded with world-class talent. World Champions Lilian Odira and Faith Cherotich, who won bronze at Olympics Games Paris 2024 are two of the leading names in world athletics chosen to represent Kenya at the upcoming Commonwealth Games. They are joined by Commonwealth Champion Ferdinand Omanyala who will be looking to defend his title in the men's 100m. Olympic and Commonwealth 1500m silver medallist Timothy Cheruiyot, who won over the distance at the trials, will lead Kenya's squad for the newly introduced Mile event.

That's serious firepower. Omanyala defending his 100m title, world champion Odira in the 800m, Cherutiyot in the mile. These athletes have the pedigree to deliver gold medals.

Key Absences That Matter

Wazi, there's something important to know here. Mary Moraa (women's 800m), Beatrice Chebet and Jackline Chepkoech (women's 3,000m steeplechase) will not defend their respective Commonwealth Games titles. Chebet is currently on maternity break, while Chepkoech is not competing in the trials. This is huge because these are world-class athletes who earned Kenya multiple golds in Birmingham. Beatrice Chebet, the athletics distance double Olympic and world champion over the women's 5000m and 10,000m, will sit out the 2026 season to start a family. The Kenyan announced in a post on Instagram on Monday (5 January) that she is pregnant.

Losing Chebet, Moraa, and Chepkoech from the squad is a significant blow to Kenya's medal hopes in traditionally strong women's events.

The Team Size and Focus

Kenya will be represented by 93 athletes competing in 12 disciplines, including para sports, at the 'Club' Games. This is a smaller delegation than the 123 athletes representing the country in 17 sports at the 2022 Birmingham, England Games, after the organisers reduced the number of participants from 5,000 to 2,500. However, Kenya has selected a team of 52 athletes for the games specifically for athletics.

That's a deep athletics squad with quality over quantity. The focus seems laser-sharp on events where Kenya can win.

Breaking Down the Math

Here's what we know: Kenya can absolutely hit three gold medals in Glasgow. They have elite talent in the sprints (Omanyala), middle distance (Odira, Cheruiyot), and long distance/steeplechase. However, the loss of Beatrice Chebet is particularly significant because she was shaping up to be automatic gold in distance events if she'd been competing.

The question isn't about capability. Kenya has the athletes. The question is: with a smaller delegation and some key absences, will they click across three different events? That's less certain than it looks on paper.

Trade Glasgow Commonwealth Games: Will Kenya win at least 7 Gold medals in Athletics? on Kadiplay

All insights